Why are so many venomous serpents slithering towards the sandalwood? Is it the sweet smell that is attracting them? A closer look reveales a snake charmer dressed like a tantric is offering milk sitting under the tree. Everything was going nicely until a bunch of angry buffaloes barge into the scene chasing the snakes away. Does this give enough fodder for a nightmare? I don't know, but the Bihar state assembly elections have become a nightmare for poll observers like me to predict the outcome. Conflicting reports, claims and counterclaims are pouring in.
In the last parliament elections, when the NDA under the leadership of Narendra Modi bagged 31 out of 40 seats (with a vote share of 38.8%) in a 3-cornered fight, it appeared that winning the state elections would be a cakewalk for them. But the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar was not the guy who would accept defeat so easily. He was down, but he was not out.
The wily politician calculated that if he combines 20.1 % of RJD, 8.4% of INC and his 15.8% it would add upto 44.3%, which is 5.5% greater than the vote share of the NDA. His relationship with Lalu was nothing short of a relationship between a snake and a mongoose. Besides, allying with Nitish, Lalu would lose the anti-incumbancy votes. There was an apprehension of revolt within the JD (U), too. So, this political marriage looked very unlikely. But like a magician, and with the help of Sonia Gandhi who was ready to cut off her nose to spite BJP'S face, Nitish forged the alliance. It tested the waters in the by elections held in August last year, when they won 6 out of 10 seats.
The experiment was successful.
However, Nitish received a jolt when the lead actor, Jitan Ram Manjhi, in the political drama of resignation enacted by him after the poll drubbing to win public sympathies decided to listen to his inner voice instead of acting like a stooge. As Manjhi belonged to the extreme backward class, BJP got a great opportunity to brand Nitish as anti-Dalit when he sacked Manjhi. Everything was going hunky dory for the BJP until Mohan Bhagwat from the RSS scored a self-goal in saying that reservation policy needs to be reviewed.
It was a politically incorrect statement uttered in wrong time. The mahajot lapped up the opportunity provided by Bhagwat to create an atmosphere of fear among the schedule caste and other backward caste voters. They were told that the BJP would abolish the current reservation policy. The BJP was late in their damage control act. The unfortunate incident of Dadri lynching somehow consolidated minority votes against the BJP. So, in the first 2 rounds, it was advantage Mahajot.
But the game hasn't ended yet. The misconception has been dispelled. So, there's every reason for the BJP to give a hard fight. There has been some negative report in the media about the BJP'S possible loss. I don't know how such reports can surface during the poll period! Has the ECI taken note of this? There has been some reports of the BJP'S star-campaigner Narendra Modi cancelling his scheduled xmeetings. No matter whether Modi campaigns or not he will have to face severe criticism in case the NDA loses. So, it's better to give his best shot instead of thinking about the results.
After the loss in Delhi elections, the BJP said they were not perturbed by the outcome, they would work relentlessly. That should be the approach. Politics is a continuous phenomenon. It doesn't stop with one result. Even if I assume that the Mahajot wins the poll, it will be extremely difficult for Nitish to work with the RJD. The RJD cannot change its spots. Whatever goodwill Nitish has will be lost in little time. It may not be possible for the Mahajot to complete the term. There maybe polls within 2 years. And at that time it will be very easy to politically finish off Nitish.
As far as the Congress is concerned, it's nothing short of a harakiri. Rahul Gandhi's dream of creating strong organisational set up in the state has taken a hard beating. It will be lucky to win even a single seat, and will have to be a lackey of Nitish.
Pictures taken from the net
