Now that the fates of candidates for the 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly Elections 2015 -- where 56.8% of 6.68 crore electorates had exercised their franchise -- have been sealed in the EVMs, the days of shrill campaigning, cacophonous rhetoric and hitting below the belt (yes, this was a no-holds-barred contest) are over. Now it's time for a couple of sleepless nights for the politicians. All eyes will be glued to the news channels on 8th November 8 AM onwards. In the meantime, the conflicting exit poll results have not at all helped to soothe the nerves of politicians belonging to either alliances.
While ABP News- Nielsen and India TV-C Voter predicted a clear majority for the Mahagatbandhan, Times Now-C Voter predicted a thin majority for the Mahagatbandhan. On the other hand, India Today-Cicero predicted a thin majority for the NDA. Up to this point, it was pleasant news for Nitish and Lalu. But suddenly News 24 - Today's Chanakya came up with a shocking result for them: NDA winning 155 while Mahagatbandhan winning only 83. Dejected NDA supporters got a booster to cheer up their sombre mood. Chanakya is the only agency which had hit the bull's eye in LS 2014. So, they cannot be easily discounted.
Now let us discuss the probable snenarios, with respect to the main four political parties, emerging after the results are out. Let's take the BJP first. It's a win-win situation for them. If they win, the stature of Modi will rise at the national level. The ambitious politician NiKu thought himself as a prime ministerial candidate in the last LS election and competed with NaMo. He got such a humiliating defeat that he had to resign from the post of Chief Minister. If that can be called an away match for NiKu, this is his home match to take revenge. If Modi succeeds to defeat him again, Modi can be said to have completely demolished Nitish. The critics may not stop criticism, but in their hearts they would know that their efforts are going in vain.
If the BJP loses the election, they don't have to lose much. As per Times Now-C Voter survey, they are going to emerge as the single largest party with 91 seats. That means good number of Rajya Sabha seats for the next few years. With that number of seats, they will become a formidable opposition. In the centre, or in the forthcoming UP election, this result will have no bearing. Because, at centre the BJP enjoys a huge majority, and as for UP election, each election is a different ball game.
As far Nitish is concerned, it's a lose-lose scenario for him. If he loses, he will be finished. If he wins, it will be almost impossible for him to work with the RJD. Because the RJD cannot change its spots. Hooliganism and corruption are in their DNA. Whatever goodwill Nitish had will be lost in no time. He may not be able to complete his term. Maybe within 2 years, there will be another poll, where he will be politically finished.
For the Congress, it's a lose-lose situation. They were an insignificant ally ( in Bengali it is called "dudhe bhate") of the Mahagatbandhan in this battle; nobody took them seriously. Nitish and Lalu meticulously avoided sharing dias with Rahul Gandhi. At best, they would win 4 seats. What will they do with that number? Rahul's dream of building a strong organisational base in the state has already taken a hard beating. Instead of standing on their own feet, they would be lackeys of Nitish and Lalu. And if they lose, they would be subjected to further ridicule.
But as far as Lalu is concerned, a win will definitely rejuvenate his party. It will be interesting to know what will happen if the RJD manages to win more seats than the JD (U)! A loss will completely demoralise the party workers.
So, all eyes on 8th November.
Pictures taken from the net
